A tropical depression in the Caribbean strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael with maximum sustained wind speeds of 45 mph on Monday (November 4) afternoon. It is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the tenth since September.
Rafael is forecasted to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before becoming a Category 2 storm and potentially hitting Cuba.
Heavy rainfall will affect the western Caribbean, with totals of three to six inches and up to nine inches expected locally in Jamaica and parts of Cuba. Flooding and mudslides are possible.
Currently located in the western Caribbean Sea, the storm system is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
As it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm is expected to encounter conditions that would weaken it as it moves north towards the Gulf Coast. These conditions include increased wind shear, dry air, and less warm water in the central and northern Gulf. These factors could significantly impact Rafael to the point it could either make landfall as a much weaker storm or may get ripped apart and not make landfall at all.
Forecasters are predicting that it will bring heavy rainfall to parts of the U.S. along the Gulf of Mexico, according to advisories from the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.
While weather models suggest the center of the storm could eventually make landfall between Louisiana and the western edge of the Florida Panhandle, dry air and water temperatures in the 70s Fahrenheit could cause it to rapidly weaken as it moves north.
According to The Weather Channel, Rafael's path will depend on the movement of a dip in the jet stream over the U.S. next week. If the jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it could draw Rafael across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida. If the jet stream dip lags to the west, Rafael may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas.