A split has emerged among U.S. intelligence agencies regarding the mysterious "Havana syndrome" that has affected American diplomats and intelligence officers overseas. Two out of seven spy agencies now suggest that a foreign actor might have developed or deployed a weapon causing these health incidents, according to a recent intelligence assessment released Friday (January 10). However, officials have not disclosed which agencies have shifted their views.
Five agencies maintain it is "very unlikely" that a foreign actor is responsible, citing sensitive intelligence that points away from foreign involvement. This includes reports that foreign adversaries were surprised by the incidents or denied involvement in private communications, as noted by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) during a teleconference.
The two dissenting agencies, which hold a "low confidence" in their assessments, believe there is a "roughly even chance" that a novel weapon or prototype device was used. One agency suggests that foreign actors are advancing in scientific research and weapons development, but cautions that it is unlikely such a weapon was used in any 'Havana syndrome' cases.
The new assessment follows criticism from government employees who felt their cases were dismissed. The White House National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson, Sean Savett, emphasized the need for continued research and investigation into credible incidents. Victims of 'Havana syndrome' have noted a rift between the NSC, other government departments, and some intelligence officials.
Republicans on a House intelligence subcommittee reported an "increasing likelihood" of foreign involvement, criticizing the intelligence community's assessments as lacking thoroughness. The ODNI official rejected these claims, asserting that the analytic work was objective and fact-focused.
The debate continues as the intelligence community supports lab work to explore whether radio frequencies could cause symptoms reported by victims. Despite differing opinions, officials stress that the injuries are real and deserving of government support and compensation. The intelligence community remains committed to following the facts, even as the debate over foreign involvement persists.